If you have had a quick glimpse at the ANZ Championship competition table and have written off the Southern Steel's prospects of making the play-offs, you are probably right.
The Steel has won just two of its seven matches and has shown little to suggest it can beat the likes of Waikato Bay of Plenty Magic, the Melbourne Vixens or the Queensland Firebirds in the weeks to come. But it must if it is going to resurrect its slim semifinal hopes.
The Steel is in eighth place, six points outside the top four.
With the competition in its first year there is no history to suggest how many points the Steel will need to make the play-offs, but it will probably need to win five of its six remaining games.
It should beat the Central Pulse at Stadium Southland in Invercargill on Saturday, and has winnable games against the West Coast Fever in Dunedin and the Mystics in Auckland in rounds 11 and 12 respectively.
The Magic, Vixens and Firebirds on paper all have more talent and will go in to their games against the Steel as warm favourites.
The ruthless finishing and composure shown by the Steel's predecessor, the Sting, during its reign have been replaced by vulnerability and doubt.
The Steel has twice been in strong positions to win but folded in the final quarter.
It led the Northern Mystics by as many as eight goals but still found a way to lose, and could not close a tight match against the Canterbury Tactix the following week.
Steel coach Robyn Broughton has stressed she has a new team which will take time to develop. But in veteran midcourter Jenny-May Coffin, underrated defender Megan Hutton and shooters Daneka Wipiiti and Megan Dehn, the Steel has plenty of experienced players who should be able to adapt quickly.
With former Sting players Adine Wilson, Donna Wilkins and Jenny Ferguson all unavailable, Broughton was always going to face a rebuilding year. She had a magic run with the Sting, leading it to seven titles in 10 years.
A trademark of her coaching was her ability to recruit the best players, no doubt helped by the money the Invercargill Licensing Trust threw at the team.
But aside from Coffin and Dehn, Broughton has remained loyal to players from the region and you have to wonder if the franchise missed a golden opportunity to boost its stocks with some world-class players.
The Firebirds' best finish in the Commonwealth Bank Trophy during the past 11 years was fourth, but since signing Jamaican shooter Romelda Aiken for the inaugural ANZ Championship, the team has gone from also-ran to serious title contender.
In a game which is often decided by two or three goals, that is the difference a quality shooter can make. The Steel's weakness has been its reliance on one shooter.
Wipiiti has put up 294 attempts, more than double the number by Dehn (119), who has largely been used as a feeder.
The pair are shooting at 77% and 76% respectively, and while useful, these figures do not compare well with those of the competition's leading shooters, Irene van Dyk and Aiken, both of whom are landing more than 90% of their shots.
If the Steel is going to improve, both Wipiiti and Dehn need to lift their percentages.
Southern Steel
Remaining matches
v Central Pulse, Stadium Southland, May 31
v Melbourne Vixens, Stadium Southland, June 7
v West Coast Fever, Edgar Centre, June 16
v Northern Mystics, North Shore Events Centre, June 23
v Waikato Bay of Plenty Magic, Stadium Southland, June 30
v Queensland Firebirds, Edgar Centre, July 6
Play-off hopes
• The Steel will probably need to win at least five of its remaining six fixtures to force its way into the play-offs. Four might be enough.
• It should beat the Pulse in Invercargill next Saturday and has winnable games againstthe West Coast Fever in Dunedin and the Mystics in Auckland in rounds 11 and 12 respectively.
• It will need to cause an upset or two against the Vixens, Magic and Firebirds.
