First semi-final
India v New Zealand
Mumbai, 9.30pm today
The oil
Because they’ve got Virat Kohli.
Because they’ve got Jasprit Bumrah.
Because they’re unbeaten.
Because they’re at home.
Because. Because. Because.
There are just so many reasons why India should brush aside New Zealand and cruise into the final.
If you have been watching, it very much looks like it is their destiny.
They have steamrolled their way into the semi-finals with nine straight wins. One of those wins was a four-wicket victory against the Black Caps.
They boast some ridiculous firepower with the bat and they have the stingiest bowling unit in the tournament.
But if there is a fly on the papadum it is that 2019 semi-final. India got dragged into a dogfight and that played right into the hands of Kane Williamson, and there is no-one else you would rather have batting in that situation.
Somehow Williamson has overcome a serious knee injury (and a thumb injury) to take his place on the big stage again. He heads a team of battlers. Individually they are not as strong at the other three sides in the semi-finals, but collectively they keep silencing the critics. And they are owed some luck after the boundary countback farce which denied them a share of the 2019 title.
The game plan
Bat first. Score heaps and heaps. Bowl under lights and hope for some swing.
The Black Caps seem married to the idea of chasing — remember the debacle against South Africa — but this is a good opportunity to switch that up.
The average score batting first at Wankhede Stadium during the tournament is 357, while the chasers have averaged 188 and that figure is hugely inflated thanks to Glenn Maxwell, who bludgeoned 201 not out in one of the most extraordinary World Cup innings ever played.
So batting first is compulsory.
Trent Boult and Tim Southee are a lot more effective when the ball is hooping around. Southee, in particular, is fodder when the ball is not moving. And Boult has not been at his best at this World Cup, but found better rhythm against Sri Lanka.
Mitchell Santner (16 wickets at 24.87) has a chance to upstage IPL team-mate Ravindra Jadeja (16 at 18.25) in the battle of the left arm spinners, which could be crucial.
But that all-important toss could prove much more critical.
Game changers
- One point four billion Indians cannot be wrong. Neither can the stats. Kohli is a once-in-a-generation talent. The 35-year-old is the leading scorer at the tournament with 594 runs at an average of 99. In nine innings he has posted two hundreds and five half centuries. He is due a miss, right?
- And Bumrah? Well, he is fairly handy as well. The Indian pace bowler is a triple threat. He can beat you with pace or swing and his control is just tremendous. He has nabbed 17 wickets at 15.64.
- Boult has not been the force he has been at previous tournaments. But if he can get the ball to move in the air then the Black Caps will be a much more formidable opponent.
They said
A lot of Indian grounds have been high scoring. That's the nature of one-day cricket in this part of the world. It's trying to understand what the pitch will be like and read what a good score on it is because those big overs, 10 runs here or there, can cost you at the back end of the innings."
— New Zealand pace bowler Lockie Ferguson
"It's a difficult venue to bowl in. The bounce is true and batsmen often dominate there. Unlike in Twenty20, the bowlers have plenty of time to come back into the game. But yes, you need a couple of early wickets to get on top of the game and the opponents.
— Indian spinner Kuldeep Yadav
Prediction
No comment.
Second semi-final
South Africa wicketkeeper-batsman Quinton de Kock leaves the field after being bowled by Afghanistan's Mohammad Nabi in Ahmedabad. PHOTOS: REUTERS
South Africa v Australia
Kolkata, tomorrow, 9.30pm
The oil
We all know how this one ends, right?
The Proteas are forever haunted by the 1999 semi-final against Australia.
South Africa, who were nine down, required nine to win from the last over and Lance Klusener smashed back-to-back fours.
What followed was madness. Allan Donald backed up too far and was nearly run out when Klusener clubbed the ball to mid-on.
Klusener dug out a yorker next ball and set off for the non-strikers end . But Donaldson did not respond until it was much, much too late.
But this time might be different. For a start the weather looks very dodgy.
Also South Africa has beaten Australia four times in the last month or so, including a comprehensive 134-run win in the round robin match.
The game plan
Win the toss. Bat first. South Africa can’t chase. See their game against the Netherlands.
Game changers
South African left-armer Marco Jansen has captured 17 wickets at 24.41, but the star has been opener Quinton de Kock and his four centuries. Impressive.
Australia will lean on wrist spinner Adam Zampa — the tournament’s leading wicket-taker with 22 at 18.90 — and David Warner has 499 runs at an average 55.44
They said
"I certainly haven't been at the level I would have liked ... or not the same level as the last two World Cups, anyway, but now a chance at the pointy end to impact again."
— Australian left-armer Mitchell Starc
"They are as ready as they can be. It can feel like they've had baggage for a very long time, they've lost out on other World Cups due to simple things — maybe net run-rate ... but certainly not for bad cricket."
— Former South African fast bowler Dale Steyn
Prediction
Australia
