The kiwi had spent the past two weeks in the US82c to US84c range.
''For exporters and those exposed to a rising currency, the next few weeks may well present opportunities to access the New Zealand dollar at lower levels,'' Mr Jones said.
Most of the direction for the NZ dollar-US dollar cross had come from the US.
That was likely to remain the case in the near-term as the US entered a critical, but highly uncertain, period in budget and debt negotiations, he said.
The market had so far taken a ''fairly sanguine'' view about the impact of the government shutdown now under way.
That seemed appropriate, given the limited impact of past shutdowns. The late 1995 episode lasted about three weeks and resulted in a hit to US economic growth of no more than 1%.
The US currency fell again against the euro and the yen as the US shutdown continued with no end in sight, he said.
Worries mounted the political paralysis in Washington would lead to the Government being forced to default on its obligations.
That ''could have a catastrophic effect on not just financial markets but also on job creation, consumer spending and economic growth'', he said.
Mr Jones said on current estimates, the US Treasury would run out of cash soon after October 17.
That was problematic, given a social security payment of about $US25 billion ($NZ30.1 billion) was due on November 1. More importantly, an interest payment of $30 billion was due on November 15.
''A failure to raise the ceiling in time to meet this interest payment could technically constitute a US Government default. The potential damage to the US and global economy would be massive.''
Modern history suggested treasury bonds and the US dollar would attract ''safe haven'' demand if Congress failed to raise the debt ceiling, he said.
If that played out, the New Zealand dollar would be friendless, due to its high-beta status and the country's sizeable current account deficit.
It was not likely the sell-off would be as large as the fall of more than 10% in 2011. But a pull-back below US80c was probable. Any dip below US80c represented a buying opportunity, Mr Jones said.
The BNZ year-end forecast remained at US83.5c.
World oil prices fell yesterday as the stalemate in the US continued. US stocks also suffered hefty losses on worries the budget battle could escalate into default.
