Tony Abbott's election should provide Australia with some much needed political stability, Harbour Asset Management managing director Andrew Bascand says.
However, with an outright majority in the Senate looking unlikely, and a bounce in business confidence not assured, rebalancing Australia's economy remained a challenge.
China's shift to a more balanced economic model forced a similar shift upon Australia's economy. ''While the pace of Australia's economic expansion has slowed, it remains respectable at 2.6%, according to last week's GDP data release. But with unemployment grinding higher ...an easy rebalance is not guaranteed,'' he said.
''Blessed with a seemingly endless supply of minerals, Australia had a bulletproof economy and a booming employment market. While the rest of us were feeling the effects of the global financial crisis a few years ago, Australia avoided a recession completely and was the only developed economy to do so.''
Today, things did not look quite as healthy, he said. Unemployment was rising, business confidence was at its lowest level in four years and economic growth forecasts were being rapidly revised downward.
In August last year, the Reserve Bank of Australia was forecasting growth in 2013 of 3%. That had since been pared back.
In New Zealand, the Reserve Bank had been ratcheting up economic forecasts as things got better, Mr Timms said.
In June 2012, the central bank was expecting growth of just 1.5% next year. By December, it had revised that upwards to 2.8% and last month, it was ''tweaked'' up further to 3.3%.
Australia's reliance on China and its insatiable demand for minerals was a major reason for its recent difficulties. More than 30% of the country's exports went to China, he said. China's economic growth had slowed from well above 10% annually to about 7.5%. While that would be the slowest year of growth in about 20 years, by world standards it was still a ''phenomenal'' growth rate.
Twenty years ago, China represented just 2.5% of the world economy. Today, it accounted for 12.2% and it was estimated to be more than 15% in five years' time, Mr Timms said.
Craigs expected Australian business sentiment to improve, given confidence was at a three-year low and many businesses had been vocal in their support for the Coalition.
''With balance sheets in a very strong condition, we may consequently see a strong pick-up in investment spending over the coming six months.''
The controversial paid parental leave scheme from 2015 was to be funded by a 1.5% levy on the largest 3200 Australian businesses. That would be offset by a lowering of the company tax rate from 30% to 28.5% at the same time.
Mr Timms said that might benefit smaller companies which escaped the levy but received the benefit of the tax cut. Losers might be some of the larger businesses and their investors, as the new 1.5% levy would not accrue franking credits as company tax did.
In terms of policy changes, the Coalition's intention to remove the carbon and mining taxes was the most relevant, but they might not happen straight away, he said.
The Greens might still hold the Senate balance of power until the newly elected senators took their seats in July 2014 and that could delay any changes in policy.
Assuming the carbon tax was removed, there would be several corporate beneficiaries, Mr Timms said.
Boral and Adelaide Brighton would be slight winners. The removal of the carbon tax on lng exports would also see Santos and Woodside benefit to a lesser extent.
Transpacific would be a big winner, as the carbon tax had impacts on its large landfill sites. Transpacific's smaller competitors that were under the threshold had escaped the tax and won market share as a result.
Qantas would also be a big winner, as the company incurred about $A100 million ($NZ115.3 million) of additional taxes it did not recover. For the electricity companies, the impacts were minimal, as most had simply passed those costs on to consumers.
The removal of the mining tax probably pushed the valuation of BHP and Rio Tinto shares up by about 2.5%, while the removal of the mining and carbon taxes combined boosted the valuation of the resources sector by closer to 4%, Mr Timms said.
Coalition policies seemed to be positive for the casinos (Crown and Echo) but neutral for the wagering businesses of Tabcorp and Tatts.
The Coalition had said it would freeze the employer contribution rate of superannuation at 9.25% for two years instead of pushing ahead with the scheduled increases to 9.5% in July 2014 and 10% in July 2015.
It would also abolish the low-income contribution - the Government contributed $A500 into super for people on less than $A37,000 a year.
''These changes could reduce super contributions into the market slightly. It could be a small positive for businesses, in terms of their cost structures,'' Mr Timms said. The Australian sharemarket remained an important investment destination for New Zealanders, despite the changing face of the economy.
There were many excellent companies in the region and there were industries that would see the changes taking place as a tailwind, rather than an obstacle, he said.
''Australia still has healthy long-term prospects, but the transition away from the mining sector may mean a few challenges along the way, as other industries take some time to pick up the slack.''
Finance Brokers Association of Australia chief executive Peter White said the change of government should bring a new era of stability.
Many people were reluctant to commit to large purchases, such as mortgages, during times of uncertainty and the past three years of minority government and continued leadership speculation had affected finance brokers, as well as consumers.
''It's clear from the outset the new Coalition Government will provide Australia with more certainty and steady leadership and this is at the heart of both business and consumer confidence.''
The Coalition was seen to have a greater understanding of small business and was more likely to remove the red tape that created unnecessary burdens on the finance sector, Mr White said.
The association had been discussing industry needs ''closely'' with the Coalition for many years and believed the new Government understood the needs of the industry.
''They have promised they will not be pushing through new regulation but they will have to complete things sitting on the table to improve protection for consumers.
''The key people in the Government are very understanding of where we're coming from. I see that as a good thing - from a broking side of things,'' Mr White said.
