The March monetary policy statement highlighted the strength of the dollar which the Reserve Bank saw as "somewhat unjustified".
Westpac chief economist Dominick Stephens said the Reserve Bank would waste no time on Thursday pointing out that inflation had now fallen into the lower part of its 1%-3% target range.
The bank's press release might make direct reference to ongoing falls in New Zealand export commodity prices, which it had not expected.
Commentary on the global economy would surely be downbeat given the recent run of weaker data in the United States and China, and fresh worries about financial stability in Europe, he said.
"Finally, we expect the 'fire and brimstone' warnings about the detrimental effect of the high exchange rate to be repeated - or even intensified."
In March, the Reserve Bank fumed that the high value of the New Zealand dollar was detrimental to the tradeable sector, undermined GDP growth and inhibited rebalancing in the New Zealand economy.
It concluded that sustained strength in the New Zealand dollar would reduce the need for future increases in the official cash rate.
Since then, the economic backdrop had weakened but the exchange rate remained stubbornly high, Mr Stephens said.
In the past six weeks, there had been an accumulation of "small surprises" that all argued in the direction of keeping the OCR low for longer.
"Consequently, we have changed our OCR forecast. We now expect the first OCR hike to come in March 2013."
In September, a new Reserve Bank governor would inherit an "on hold" stance and a headline inflation rate in the lower half of the target band, he said.
Even if the economy was accelerating and house prices were rising, the new governor might not need to change direction as early as the December monetary policy statement.
He or she could use the opportunity to establish their credentials by leaving the OCR hikes until 2013, Mr Stephens said.
Business and Economic Research Ltd chief economist Ganesh Nana said this year had started just like the previous couple of years with enthusiastic commentary from many sources, hailing the recovery that was just around the corner and consigning the recession to the history books.
Coupled with those commentaries were concerns that inflation might reappear, with resurgent oil prices and factors related to the Christchurch rebuilding to the fore and used as evidence that increases in official interest rates were imminent.
"Well, it's only April, and already the clamour for interest rate increases `to quickly return to more neutral levels' has receded with many not seeing increases until late 2012, if not well into 2013."
A new story was now grabbing the headlines, that of a resurgent housing market, Dr Nana said.
However, the story within the story was of Auckland where the imbalance in housing supply and demand was clearly straining the rental market.
"This factor will undoubtedly test the will of the Reserve Bank in its deliberations as to when to increase interest rates.
"Clearly, the balance between inflation and growth considerations would undoubtedly err on the side of deferring any increase as exports falters and the Christchurch rebuild is mired in delay and insurance uncertainties."
Among the best evidence of that was the progressive worsening of the government accounts as tax revenue continued to fall short of now worryingly optimistic forecasts, he said.
But that still left the Reserve Bank in a quandary as to whether to respond to an Auckland housing market surge.
Dr Nana suggested the Reserve Bank regulatory oversight of the banking sector could play an increasing role to ensure previous housing bubbles were not repeated.
