Election uncertainty tipped to hit confidence

Nick Tuffley.
Nick Tuffley.
The Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion is likely to sum up the eventful three months leading up to the election when it is released today.

Coalition talks seem likely to start later this week between New Zealand First and National and Labour respectively.

ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley said it could still be a waiting game as the final vote count was not available until 2pm on Saturday.

Election-related uncertainty was widely expected to weigh on headline business confidence on the quarterly survey today, but the details would be key, he said.

``While last week's August jump in dwelling consent issuance was encouraging, the pipeline of future work was extremely long. As such, the capacity readings from the QSBO would help address some of our concerns over whether there is sufficient capacity within the construction sector to accommodate the long pipeline of future work.''

Rising export commodity prices had been positive to the outlook and the prospective rebalancing on the economy.

A positive dairy trade auction result was expected later in the week.

The New Zealand dollar had remained ``reasonably resilient'' so far, but the longer the election outcome dragged on, the greater potential down-side risk there was for the kiwi, Mr Tuffley said.

Craigs Investment Partners broker Chris Timms the past three months had been eventful for the economy.

House prices were showing signs of moderating as sale numbers fell sharply. Migration looked to have peaked and construction also appeared to have slowed.

Also, political uncertainty emerged late in the quarter.

The ANZ business survey reported confidence falling to the lowest quarterly average since March 2016 and the QSBO might have also come off the boil, he said.

BNZ senior economist Craig Ebert said about six months ago the BNZ was forecasting economic growth would fall sequentially for the next two to three years.

``However, we then introduced acceleration in the expansion through calendar 2018 being the period impacted by the substantial tax cuts the Government regulated for.

``Now, however, those cuts are up in the air. It's not that they are off the agenda. If we get a National-led government, the plan will stay in place.''

If Labour occupied the government benches, there was no doubt there would be replacement stimulus, although the form or magnitude was not yet known.

One way or another, extra stimulus would be forthcoming, but there was little confidence on how it would be introduced, Mr Ebert said. Matters such as these must impact the confidence of retailers and manufacturers alike.

It was doubtful the QSBO would provide the Reserve Bank any prod in the direction of raising interest rates anytime soon, he said.

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