By rights, the home side should beat Northland comfortably at Forsyth Barr Stadium tonight.
It has started the season well with good wins over Southland and Wellington while Northland has lost its opening two games and last won a game nearly two years ago.
However, logic and sport are not often good bedfellows.
It is all about what happens on the field tonight not what happened last week or the week before.
In fact, if anything, history should sound a warning for Otago.
It hosted Northland in a midweek match two years ago when its season was just unfolding with some promise.
Most picked an Otago win but Northland came to play and, thanks to a dominant performance by its loose forwards, the men from the north went away with a 40-23 victory.
So Otago cannot go into the match with any pre-conceived ideas of just clocking up another victory.
Otago coach Cory Brown is fully aware of what awaits his side and is not taking anything for granted.
"I think they [Northland] are a really good team. They have some good individuals who really like to play. A lot of their play is unpredictable so we are going to have to be strong defensively," Brown said.
"Every game is important and we definitely will not be taking them lightly at all. We’ll be staying in our systems."
Otago was impressive in the 44-21 win over Wellington but Brown said that game was behind the team.
"We have moved on from there. We want to impose our style of play in the right parts of the field."
Brown will be mindful of the changes he has made and will have one eye on the match against Bay of Plenty in Tauranga on Sunday.
Not that he will admit to that.
"We just have to concentrate on this game and not worry about what is happening in the weekend. We can’t afford to look too far ahead."
Northland will be different from Wellington as it will not be as physical and will look to move the ball from all parts of the ground.
Otago will therefore have to adjust its game and may look to not be as direct as possible.One thing it will not want out of the game is more injuries.
With five forwards on the sideline because of head knocks, it can ill afford to get any more players into the sick bay.
Big University loose forward Sione Teu will make his debut and will need to be part of a busy loose forward trio.
It could be argued the most effective player for Otago in the opening two games has been flanker James Lentjes, who has been a workhorse on defence.
Naulia Dawai gets the chance to play on the openside and will be looking to make an impact after a subdued start to the season.
Otago v Northland
FB Stadium, today, 7.35pm
Otago: Michael Collins, Fa’asiu Fuatai, Matt Faddes, Sio Tomkinson, Jack Wilson, Fletcher Smith, Josh Walden, Paul Grant (captain), Naulia Dawai, Sione Teu, Tom Franklin, Blair Tweed, Hisa Sasagi, Sam Anderson-Heather, Aki Seiuli. Reserves: Liam Coltman, Craig Millar, Donald Brighouse, Tom Rowe, Hame Toma, Kaide Whiting, Scott Eade, Tony Ensor.
Northland: Solomon Alaimalo, Waisea Lawebuka, Warren Dunn, Jordan Hyland, Jone Macilai, Peter Breen, Sam Nock, Matt Mactich, Jack Ram, Kara Pryor, Shane Neville, Josh Larsen, Phil Kite, Matt Moulds (captain), Howard Sililoto. Reserves: Jordan Olsen, Namatahi Wa’a, Matt Telaese, Epineri Uluiviti, Aorangi Stokes, Matty Hawkins, Dan Hawkins, Tamati Tua.
Referee: Richard Kelly (Taranaki)