Labour surplus bid relies on tax rises

David Cunliffe
David Cunliffe
Labour has opened its books on election promises but returning the Crown accounts to surplus by 2014-15 depends a lot on increased taxes and betting on increased returns from overseas investments.

Labour is forecasting it will return the accounts to a $497 million surplus in 2014-15, a year ahead of National.

The 2013-14 year was the only one in which Labour reported a larger operating deficit than National.

As previously announced, Labour would introduce a capital gains tax to come into effect from April 2013 and finance spokesman David Cunliffe said it would start to have an impact from 2013-14.

Independent forecasting from Berl indicates revenue from the capital gains tax would reach $464 million by 2016. Figures provided by Labour show that $78 million would be paid in 2014 and $249 million in 2015.

The second most significant revenue-raising measure was the re-establishment of a progressive top tax rate. It would affect the top 2% of earners, being those on an income over $150,000. That would raise $225 million in 2013, $321 million in 2014 and $334 million in 2015.

The agriculture industry would be brought into the emissions trading scheme (ETS) in 2013, instead of 2015 under National. Labour's figures show the ETS would bring in $109 million in 2013, $218 million in 2014 and $190 million in 2015, assuming the price of carbon stays at $25 per tonne for the whole period.

The main revenue-reduction element of Labour's tax package was the introduction of a tax-free zone, initially on the first $3000 of income from April 2013 but then rising to the first $5000 of income from April 2014.

The costs start in 2013, rise to $970 million in 2014 and $1.4 billion in 2015.

Taking GST off fresh fruit and vegetables in 2013 costs $317 million in 2014 and increases gradually from there.

The interesting gamble for Labour is to restart contributions to the New Zealand Superannuation Fund, which National stopped doing because it would have had to borrow the money to pay for the contributions.

Mr Cunliffe said there was net gain from the policy, with increased returns from the fund offsetting borrowing costs.

As a result of restarting contributions - increasing at $750 million a year to full contributions in 2016 - the fund would pay $2.55 billion more tax and be $12.8 billion larger in 2026 than if contributions remained suspended until 2018, as in the pre-election economic and fiscal update (Prefu).

Labour would spend $221 billion over the first term of government, compared with $220 billion under National.

Finance spokesman David Cunliffe said Labour's fiscal strategy was written against the backdrop of an uncertain world economy.

Labour retained "the full revenue stream from SOEs [state-owned enterprises] and this combined with our fair tax package and expenditure control means Labour's fiscal surpluses will become larger than those forecast in the Prefu from 2016-17".

"Flowing from this, larger surpluses and higher returns to the New Zealand Superannuation fund means less net debt in the long term," he said.

The need to offset asset sale revenue - expected by the Government to be between $5 billion to $7 billion - would require slightly more borrowing to finance capital investment in the short to medium term.

At the end of Labour's first term, net debt, including the super fund, would be $51.26 billion, compared with the Prefu forecast of $48.7 billion - a difference of $2.55 billion.

Mr Cunliffe said the result was Labour would eliminate net debt in 2021-22, a year ahead of National.

 

 

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