Grant Robertson has a southern edge in his claim to become the Labour Party leader tomorrow but his main chance on beating David Cunliffe rests on how far north he can push his support.
Mr Robertson will secure about two-thirds of Labour's 34 caucus votes but Mr Cunliffe has two-thirds of the trade union votes and significant support from Auckland.
Caucus gets 40% of the vote, members get 40% of the vote and unions get 20%.
Mr Robertson has strong support in Otago, Southland, Canterbury and Wellington but needs to secure mid-North Island support to come close to toppling Mr Cunliffe.
Comments to the Otago Daily Times from both the Robertson and Cunliffe camps yesterday indicated the race was closer than it was being portrayed and the preferential votes of supporters of the third contender Shane Jones were likely to make a difference.
Nearly 75% of eligible Labour Party members had voted and last-minute voters were being targeted by all camps today. Gains around the margins are becoming crucial. Behind the scenes, members are also working hard to show a strong sense of unity when the announcement is made at 2.45pm. The upside for Labour was having its policies reported on during the leadership contest, one member said.
In Dunedin, members went into last weekend's meeting with a favourite candidate and were worried about how they would feel if the outcome was different from the one they wanted. But the three candidates showed that any one of them could lead the party.
The big question is what happens to the caucus on Monday when the new leader faces up to his supporters and detractors. The winner has to give all caucus members a day or two to consider their options and decide on their future support, otherwise the three weeks of campaigning and show of unity will be wasted. Mr Cunliffe is expected to take a much stronger line with his detractors than Mr Robertson.
Only a few MPs have come out in support of one candidate or another, although speculation has been rife on who supports whom. Local MPs Clare Curran and David Clark laid down a marker by supporting Mr Robertson, but their show of support was not unexpected. How they will fare in a Cunliffe-led party will have wider implications for Dunedin.
If Mr Cunliffe wins, he will have to convince his long-time colleagues and fellow former cabinet ministers he has learned from his past mistakes when he galvanised opinion against himself.
One insider said the fact the process was open and membership was seen as having the deciding vote will mean the winner will have succeeded ''fairly and squarely'' and it was up to the party to get behind the successful man.
