Labour and its leader Jacinda Ardern have soared ahead of National in the latest 1 News Colmar Brunton Poll, and Ms Ardern did herself no harm in the first leaders’ debate on TVNZ1 on Thursday.
But, as National MP Nikki Kaye pointed out at her party’s launch, National is not one person. And neither is Labour.
Voters caught up in the hype of Ms Ardern’s campaign now need to start looking at the people likely to be in a Labour cabinet.
The fall of New Zealand First and the Greens in the polls means voters can start dismissing some of the most extreme policies both parties say are their bottom lines in government.
Neither party, on current polling, will be in a position to demand much, except a place or two at the cabinet table.
Ms Ardern’s deputy is Kelvin Davis, who was elected as a list MP in 2008. He won Te Tai Tokerau in 2014. The former school principal is seen as being to the right of many of his colleagues. Mr Davis has been in charge of Maori development.
Next is former leader Andrew Little, who would be an ideal workplace relations minister for Labour, given his extensive experience as a union leader. Grant Robertson, a Dunedin favourite, will be finance spokesman. He entered Parliament as Wellington Central MP in 2008 after working for former prime minister Helen Clark.
If appointed education minister, Chris Hipkins has vowed to get rid of National Standards and charter schools. Education will again be in for upheaval. Free tertiary education and training is a major Labour policy.
Phil Twyford must be a shoo-in for housing minister after his work dealing with Labour’s position on affordable housing. Labour is promising 100,000 new affordable homes — defined as costing $400,000 to $600,000 — over the next 10 years.
Two Dunedin MPs are in the running to be cabinet ministers. Dunedin North MP David Clark is the likely health minister in a Labour administration, but the future for Dunedin South MP Clare Curran is less certain.
Ms Curran has a keen interest in IT and broadcasting but could step up to have infrastructure included.
David Parker, an MP since 2002, is the intellectual powerhouse of Labour but his threats to farmers at a meeting in Ashburton about the water tax blotted his copybook. Although he understands finance and the economy, green issues seem to have occupied Mr Parker in recent years.
Other MPs who will need to have their ambitions met include Stuart Nash, Ian Lees-Galloway and Kris Faafoi, all electorate MPs.Labour’s Maori MPs are not on the party list and are relying on voter support to return to Parliament. If they do win their seats, they will have a strong position from which to negotiate portfolios.
Voters need to start comparing policies, not just the personalities of the leaders. National has had nine years to do some of the things it is now promising. Has it made enough progress? But are Labour’s policies, promises and costings realistic?A list of what will not happen after the election is just as important to watch as what will happen. Winston PetersNew Zealand First leader Winston Peters was the subject of a leak this week of his superannuation overpayment.
He accused National of leaking the information. Or it could have been a senior government official.
It turns out two ministers — Paula Bennett and Anne Tolley — were briefed on the overpayments by government department heads under a ‘‘no surprises’’ policy.
Prime Minister and National Party leader Bill English said he did not believe the leak had come from National and was assured by Mrs Bennett and Mrs Tolley they had not passed on the information.
National’s senior adviser in Parliament, Wayne Eagleson, was told of the overpayment.
State Services Commissioner Peter Hughes defended the decision to inform the ministers, saying it was carefully considered and the Solicitor-general was consulted.
However, Mr English said the government departments should not have told ministers, given the personal nature of the information.
National has much to gain and much to lose depending on how determined Mr Peters is to get to the truth of the matter.
What would help would be Mr Peters’ releasing of the relevant correspondence and clearing the matter up. Every superannuitant receives a letter each year asking about their circumstances and whether they have changed. Either Mr Peters chose to ignore the letter, or he did not get it. Using the blame game is not acceptable.
Social campaigningDeputy Prime Minister Paula Bennett was campaigning in the South this week, not that you would know unless you follow her on Twitter or the National Party on Facebook.
In the past, a visit to a city by a deputy prime minister would have meant a call to the local media stations. Not anymore, it seems.
Whether this is a deliberate attempt to keep the focus on the Prime Minister
and off the more outgoing and flamboyant Mrs Bennett, we can only hazard a guess.
Mrs Bennett posted a photo on Facebook with list MP and Immigration Minister Michael Woodhouse and Dunedin South candidate Matt Gregory. She enjoyed their company and the good food at a party function.
She was in Dunedin to open the Holiday Parks Conference on Wednesday morning.
On Wednesday afternoon, she was in Balclutha having a cheese roll at Peggydale, still owned by family associated with the late National MP Norman Jones.
On Thursday, she was waving placards in Invercargill and Mataura supporting MP Sarah Dowie. She also posted a photo of her cooking, apparently a ‘‘journo for lunch’’.
Avoiding media questions seems a strange way of campaigning, particularly when Mrs Bennett appears untroubled by showing her presence on social media.Act New ZealandAct leader David Seymour is launching the party’s election campaign at the Ellerslie Events Centre in Auckland tomorrow.
