Ructions in financial markets were normally a sign of trouble and tended to have dovish implications for interest rates. But in this case, the turmoil reinforced the case for higher interest rates, especially for the New Zealand official cash rate (OCR).
One of the main fallouts had been a trade-weighted exchange rate (TWI) looking more likely to undershoot Reserve Bank expectations without any real change in the local economy's outlook, he said.
''Importantly, the New Zealand TWI has abated principally on a strong bid for the United States dollar, on account of the US Federal Reserve's talk of winding back its vast buying of US Government debt.''
The liquidity squeeze in China's inter-bank market over the previous two weeks had only added turmoil, he said.
The adjustments in global equities, bonds, commodities and credit spreads over recent weeks had been abrupt. However, they did not look out of the ordinary on a longer-term perspective.
''Look at a multiyear chart on equities and one might wonder what all the fuss is about. Is what we're seeing no more than a healthy correction?''
The world's economic data had not fallen off a cliff.
Mr Ebert warned about making knee-jerk reactions to week-by-week moves in the exchange rate.
The BNZ believed the currency would be underpinned by the robust path the New Zealand economy was on, meaning a fight back in the dollar was likely into the end of this year and early into next year.
Craigs Investment Partners broker Chris Timms said a Bloomberg survey of 54 economists showed 44% of them picking the Fed to begin tapering its easing programme in September this year.
Another 15% were picking it would begin in October, 28% in December and the remaining 13% were the most cynical, believing tapering would not begin until next year.
Unlike October, the September and December Fed meetings both had press conferences scheduled, heightening speculation that September or December would have official tapering notices, he said.
If tapering did play out as markets expected, five themes were likely to emerge.
The were: higher interest rates; a rising US dollar; emerging markets might be in for further weakness; cyclical stocks might outperform yield stocks in the coming year; and, US domestic stocks might be better placed than US exporters.
''The US is looking increasingly well placed relative to many other parts of the world.
Couple this with a rising US dollar - which has provided a strong tailwind to US exporters in recent years - and we might be heading into a period where US companies that are domestically focused do better than exporters that have been such good performers over recent years,'' Mr Timms said.
