Sound basis seen for 3% rise in confidence

Cameron Bagrie
Cameron Bagrie
Doing the basics well is helping business confidence increase in New Zealand, with the ANZ Business Outlook recording a 3% rise in confidence to a net 53% of respondents expecting better times ahead.

ANZ chief economist Cameron Bagrie said yesterday that was the highest level of headline confidence since April 1999.

Firms' assessment of their own business situation remained high, easing just one point from last month's three-year high to a net 44% in July.

Construction firms were expecting their golden run to continue. A four-year high in expectations was observed for both housing and non-residential construction.

''Few surprises here. Rebuild activity, housing shortages, seismic strengthening and core infrastructure necessities are an enviable activity pipeline,'' he said.

Other main points of the survey included profit expectations rising to a 14-year high; weakening investment intentions, albeit from a 10-year high last month and still at the second-highest level in eight years; and a sideways movement in employment intentions, still at their second-highest level in three years.

The ANZ composite growth indicator was signalling a 3.9% lift by the end of the year.

However, Mr Bagrie said the economy did not have the capacity to grow that fast sustainably and such a rate looked ''somewhat rose-tinted''.

There were some obvious reasons for optimism.

House prices were up, interest rates were low, dairy prices were high, net migration was rising, a city rebuild was taking place and the global scene was reasonably stable - for now.

''Time can be a great healer, and pent-up demand can quickly be unleashed when confidence is elevated for a sustained period. We also put it down to the obscure and somewhat unappreciated. It starts with doing the basics well. The good news is that New Zealand has being doing precisely that,'' Mr Bagrie said.

The national balance sheet had improved from awful to poor; corporate New Zealand was a leaner economic machine than it was in 2008; complacency was being weeded out. Mr Bagrie said New Zealand firms were showing more evidence of execution in Asian business opportunities and the rural sector had shifted up a gear.

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