NZ trade monthly deficit continues

New Zealand has posted its second consecutive monthly trade deficit, with $649million more imports than exports for the month of July.

Imports were $4.84billion and exports totalled $4.19billion.

While for several economists there are some offsets to the ailing dairy industry, the full dairying downturn impacts are yet to be fully felt in the trade data.

The value of total goods exported was up 14%, or by $514million to $4.2billion in July, compared with July 2014, the value of goods imported rose 4.8%, or by $221million, to $4.8billion in July 2015.

Statistics New Zealand international statistics senior manager Jason Attewell said yesterday fruit exports led the rise, up 51%, or $105million, to $311million, while meat exports rose $99million, or 24%, to $505million in July, led by beef.

''Milk powder, butter and cheese exports showed little change, up $900,000 (0.1%) to $932 million,'' he said in a statement.

The increases in cheese, dairy spreads and milk protein concentrates offset the fall in milk powder exports, which were down $76million, Mr Attewell said.

BNZ economist Doug Steel said a lower currency helped across the board, and there were areas of outright strength, such as high beef prices and much higher kiwifruit volumes.

However, the large dairy price decline to date and size of dairy within the country's export basket continued to weigh on the annual totals.

ASB rural economist Nathan Penny said for the rest of 2015 he expected underlying monthly trade deficits, particularly while dairy export prices remained low.

Although there was a temporary 19% surge in dairy volumes, Mr Penny noted dairy prices posted a 0.3% fall.

''We expect this largely owes to timing, and thus the trade data will show heavier falls in coming months,'' he said in a statement.

Westpac senior economist Satish Ranchhod said the $649million July deficit was larger than expected, while the annual trade deficit narrowed, from $2.98billion to $2.69billion.

simon.hartley@odt.co.nz

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