NZ, Australian markets rally on US news

Chris Timms.
Chris Timms.
Australian shares reached five-and-a-half-year highs yesterday, as smaller investors joined the market.

The NZX-50 traded above 4800 points for the first time, closing at 4802, or up 5.8% on Friday's close.

On the same day last year, the NZX was at 4004 points. The NZX gross index is made up of capital movements plus dividends received.

In Australia, banking and resources stocks are in firmer territory, following strong gains on Wall Street on Friday night.

Craigs Investment Partners broker Chris Timms said markets rallied strongly as the United States Government averted running out of funding and agreed to a short-term solution which ended a 16-day government shutdown.

Low interest rates were encouraging people into the sharemarkets.

However, he warned the 11th-hour agreement from the two sides merely delayed the same issues until another day.

The agreement brought an end to the government shutdown, extended funding until January 15 and suspended the debt ceiling limit until February 7.

There were no major alterations to the Affordable Care Act, known as Obamacare, the key point of contention and the reason the Democrats were claiming the deal as a win for them, he said.

''This remains a short-term solution only, as we have become accustomed to in Washington. While the pressure is off for the rest of this year, January and February 2014 will potentially bring the debate back into focus and we could go through a similar period of uncertainty,'' Mr Timms said.

There would be a negative effect on economic growth for the coming three months. Economists were estimating a negative impact on growth in the three months ended December of about 0.3%.

Over the next month, the economic data out of the US was either going to be late and much less timely or somewhat questionable because of the impact of the shutdown.

''We might miss a few reports altogether simply because no-one was at work to complete the surveys.''

The reliability of the data would be reduced because not as much could be read into the outcomes as usual, he said.

The Labour Department would release the US September employment report tomorrow after a delay of more than two weeks.

The October employment report would be released one week later than scheduled, on November 8, as statistical surveys had been delayed.

Federal Reserve tapering of the bond-buying programme, known as quantitative easing, was almost certainly off the table until next year, Mr Timms said.

The Fed had previously said any moves were dependent on data. With a data vacuum and some less reliable indicators, the Fed would not rely on it nearly as much as it would have before, even if the data looked strong.

The Fed would also be conscious of the effect recent events had had on growth, as well as the potential replay of the debate in January and February.

The market was now shifting its consensus expectation to the Fed meeting in mid-March for the first reduction in monthly bond purchases from $US85 billion ($NZ100 billion) to $US70 billion.

''The key impact of this new set of expectations is we will have a more positive backdrop for equities through until the end of the year, with ongoing central bank support likely to keep rates low and shares in vogue.

''The New Zealand and Australian currencies should also stay up around current levels, without the threat of tapering there in the near-term to give the US dollar any sort of boost,'' Mr Timms said.

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