The transport and oil and gas sectors are expected to lead the half-year company reporting season, but "mixed'' results are on the cards for many of the listed companies.
The reporting season, covering 50 companies, begins this week with casino operator SkyCity on Thursday and jeweller Michael Hill on Friday, the season running through to mid-April.
Forsyth Barr broker Suzanne Kinnaird said overall growth in earnings per share would be boosted by the transport and the oil and gas sectors, but the building sector was expected to deliver flat or negative growth.
"Elsewhere, for remaining sectors, growth expectations are mixed,'' she said.
Of the 50 companies reporting, 22 were expected to deliver normalised earnings per share growth of more than 10%, Mrs Kinnaird said.
Of the 22, eight are on Forsyth Barr's "outperform'' recommendation: Air New Zealand, Briscoes, Genesis Energy, Kathmandu, New Zealand Oil & Gas, NZ Refining, Restaurant Brands and Summerset.
First off the reporting rank, SkyCity, has given guidance to a strong result driven by "solid Auckland gains,'' strong international volume growth and operating margin gains, Mrs Kinnaird said.
"The underlying local gaming trends will be of interest,'' she said.
Auckland Airport is expected to see an uplift in earnings, driven by strong international passenger growth up 7%.
"Key areas of focus will be retail, given new duty-free concessions and related disruption, and rising capital expenditure to facilitate future growth,'' she said.
A record six-month result is on the cards for Air New Zealand, driven by strong demand, capacity expansion, relatively stable yields and lower oil prices, she said.
"We see scope for further capital management initiatives in the form of special dividends, given the strong cash inflows,'' Mr Kinnaird said.
A "relatively weak'' first half trading result was expected from Contact Energy, because it had struggled to achieve its expected earnings growth.
Mrs Kinnaird expected Contact to reiterate its downgraded guidance, which would provide some comfort heading into 2017.
Meridian Energy had had a "great'' first-half trading period, being the only electricity company to successfully sell more electricity at higher prices, Mrs Kinnaird said.
She expected Australia's contribution to improve as PowerShop Australia grew its customer base.
Genesis Energy had a solid first-half 2016 trading, and Mrs Kinnaird expected cash flows to be strong when it releases working capital from its coal stockpile.
"The falling oil price should not have much direct impact on Genesis' earnings, given its hedging policy.''
Chorus was expected to restart its dividends, predicted to be about 13c for the full year, Mrs Kinnaird said.
"Key'' to its result would be updates on fibre uptake, customer loss in non-Chorus ultra-fast broadband areas and changes to expense policies.
For Spark, Mrs Kinnaird expected continued improvements in recurring mobile and data revenues and ongoing cost reductions.
"On the downside, we are watching the fixed revenue lines, particularly in wholesale and in consumer calling/connections.''
A "strong result'' at the high end of Summerset Group's earlier guidance is expected, driven by a sharp increase in build rates, sales volumes, pricing and development and resales margins.
High St retailer Kathmandu last week reiterated after-tax profit guidance of $8.5million to $9.5million, materially ahead of the result a year earlier, Mrs Kinnaird said.
"Increased profit has been driven by sales growth, improved inventory, sales management and cost efficiencies.''
Refining New Zealand had a "knockout'' full-year 2015, a strong result driven by record processing fee revenue.
"Key focus will be on what dividend it decides to pay as it moves back to paying shareholders ... a figure higher than our 15c per share final dividend forecast is possible,'' Mrs Kinnaird said.
Explorer New Zealand Oil & Gas was having a tough period as it dealt with low oil prices.
"However, with the Kupe gas contract being a major provider of income ... first-half 2016 will appear better than the result a year ago,'' she said.
She noted Oil & Gas was building up imputation credits and it was possible that it might pay a dividend.
Freightways is expected to book some earnings growth, but it had fewer trading days and last year had been a strong result.
Mrs Kinnaird expected its information management division would provide the company highlight, given its strong growth.
Fletcher Building's management had signalled a decline in earnings before interest and tax.
There had been restructuring costs, lower residential development earnings, and also a timing of earnings recognition from its construction division.
The Port of Tauranga, which has a 50% stake in Timaru's port operations, is expected to deliver a "subdued'' result, Mrs Kinnaird said.
"Modestly higher container volumes will be offset by lower log export volumes.''
