Westpac chief economist Dominick Stephens has indicated his standing forecasts need revising upwards, from 2015 house price inflation at 10% and 4.5% for 2016.
''This month's housing data has continued recent themes: the overall market remains strong, but the house price boom's centre of gravity is shifting, and is set to shift further,'' Mr Stephens said in Westpac's monthly ''home truths'' residential housing wrap.
He said although having predicted the Auckland market would slow, he conceded there had not yet been a slowing in Auckland prices, but still believed he was ''on track'' with that prediction.
''The straws of a modest slow-down are in the wind,'' he said.
There had been a pick-up in market turnover in Hamilton and Tauranga, Dunedin, Nelson and Wellington.
''There are signs of prices picking up a little in many centres, so this prediction looks on track,'' Mr Stephens said.
He noted the market was yet to respond to October 1 changes in the tax system to curb housing speculation, which tax people selling a second house within two years of purchase, and Reserve Bank lending restrictions on banks, which come into force from November 1.
The loan-to-value ratio restrictions tighten in Auckland, but are relaxed elsewhere around the country.
Mr Stephens said for the quarter to September, recent Quotable Value data revealed Hamilton had ''taken over the mantle'' of having the fastest-rising house prices in New Zealand, recording a 9% gain, compared with Auckland's 6.7% gain.
He also quoted data from realestate.co.nz, which showed a rise in the inventory of unsold Auckland properties, and a sharp decline in inventories beyond Auckland.
He said it was at present ''broadly correct'' that earlier predictions of Christchurch house prices ''slipping backwards'' had begun to erode the price premium which had built up since the earthquakes.
''The Christchurch market has been a distinct underperformer,'' he said.
He said the plunge in dairy price payout expectations had overshadowed the low interest rate regime in recent months, but the outlook had recently improved as Fonterra upped its forecast.
''Payouts for dairy farmers now look likely to be more generous than we feared a few months ago,'' Mr Stephens said.
