Statistics New Zealand's figures released on Friday show signs of the number of building consents being issued reaching a plateau.
ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley said while it was encouraging to see the rebuild back on track with a further rise in dwelling consents issued in Canterbury, residential construction demand continued to slow in Auckland.
There had been recent anecdotes from building companies about the restrictions on the Reserve Bank's high loan-to-value lending (LVR), which took effect on October 1, discouraging house-building demand, he said.
Building companies were reporting concerns among some households that if a top-up in mortgage borrowing was needed, should unexpected additional building costs be incurred once the project started, there was a risk of the mortgage hitting the 80% LVR threshold and affecting projects.
The Reserve Bank had acknowledged, in its analysis of the effects of high LVR restrictions, that reduced construction of new houses might be an ''unintended consequence'' of the new macro-prudential tool, Mr Tuffley said.
''Given the time taken for the preparation required prior to the application of a dwelling consent, we think it is too early at this stage for the effects of the restrictions to be seen in dwelling consents. Given project lead times and consent-processing time, we expect any such impact on consent issuance will largely be seen over the first half of 2014.''
New dwelling consents, including apartments, fell to a seasonally adjusted 1751 in October from 1762 a month earlier, according to Statistics New Zealand. Stripping out apartments, which can cause monthly volatility, consents fell 2.3% to 1588 from September, the biggest monthly fall since July last year.
Unadjusted, residential building permits, excluding apartments, were up 20% to 1758 in October from the same month a year earlier, and were up 25% on an annual basis to 18,323. The value of all building permits climbed 20% to $1.18 billion from a year ago, and was up an annual 19% to $11.81 billion.
Mr Tuffley said the number of October building consents issued painted a mixed picture for residential construction.
''The number of consents issued in Auckland over the past year is well below the levels required to keep up with the estimated population growth. As a result, we expect the housing shortage to persist over the coming years and keep house prices relatively elevated in the region.''
The extent of housing shortages in Auckland and Canterbury meant a substantial number of houses would need to be built. Mr Tuffley expected those two regions would remain the key drivers of construction growth in coming years.
