Building growth patchy but continuing

South Island commercial construction work helped underpin an increase in building activity across the country, along with residential work, mainly in Canterbury and Auckland.

From the December quarter to the March quarter, overall building work increased 1% across the country.

Compared with March last year, it grew nearly 10%, according to Statistics New Zealand (SNZ) data released this week.

ASB senior economist Jane Turner said the data of total building work put in place was ''broadly in line'' with expectations and left the preliminary first-quarter forecast of gross domestic product (GDP) growth unchanged at 0.3%, quarter on quarter.

''Residential construction activity has continued to record gradual growth over the past six months, despite a relatively choppy building consents profile,'' Ms Turner said.

She expected residential construction activity would plateau in 2015, ''holding up at high levels''.

BNZ chief economist Craig Ebert said there was recent evidence of a slowing, even stalling, in the building industry, but the leading long-term indicators were still strong, albeit ''not as rampant'' as six to 12 months ago.

A recent ANZ business survey said construction expectations were ''relatively buoyant'' for the next year, while architects' work expectations were well above normal levels.

In the same NZIER survey, intention to build from all respondents was the strongest on record.

SNZ's business indicators manager, Neil Kelly, said the overall value of all building work was up nearly 10% to almost $3.9 billion for the quarter to March on a year ago, and after seasonal variations were removed, the volume of residential building activity increased 2.6%.

From a low in the quarter to September 2011, residential activity was up 66%, he said.

Ms Turner said construction activity continued to grow in the South Island, while in Auckland and Wellington it fell.

She said building consent numbers indicated a slowing in the pace of residential construction in Canterbury and a gradual lift in Auckland, led by growth in the construction of multi-dwelling units.

Mr Ebert noted there was a clear North-South split in the March quarter.

Annual growth in the value of Auckland's building activity decelerated to 8%, having been 29% a year before, while Wellington lost its momentum in the second half of 2014, with 5% year-on-year for the first quarter.

The annual rate of expansion in Waikato turned negative, down 4.2%, for the first time in almost three years.

''Bucking this trend, the value of building activity in the South Island, excluding Canterbury, picked up to a 14% yearly pace in the first quarter.

''And while Canterbury's softened, it was still a hefty 18%, year-on-year,'' Mr Ebert said.

simon.hartley@odt.co.nz

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