ANZ sees case for OCR cuts

Cameron Bagrie.
Cameron Bagrie.
The ANZ Bank has called for two consecutive cuts in New Zealand's interest-driving official cash rate (OCR) and other banks are also now leaning closer to a call for cuts.

The OCR is at 3.5% and five reviews are scheduled before the end of the year, in June, July, September, October and December.

Australia, its economy languishing with the downturn in its resource sector because of waning Chinese demand, cut its OCR last week by 0.25%, to a record low 2%.

New Zealand's annual inflation rate, at the end of April, went down 0.3% to 0.1%, well below the Reserve Bank's target range of 1% to 3%.

New Zealand's low inflation, housing sector, the lower dairy pay-out and the beginning of the end of the Canterbury rebuild are all key issues for the economists' views.

The ANZ's monthly inflation gauge found declines in the housing, miscellaneous goods, and recreation and culture groups had contributed to a 0.2% fall to the inflation gauge, ANZ chief economist Cameron Bagrie said.

''We've seen enough across our four prongs, with the high New Zealand dollar, dairy income squeeze, inevitability of a prudential response towards housing and continued low core inflation reads, to call the OCR lower.

''We expect the Reserve Bank to cut [the OCR] by 25 basis points in June and follow up with another cut in July,'' Mr Bagrie said.

However, Westpac chief economist Dominick Stephens was more circumspect, describing the Reserve Bank's position as being ''between a rock and hard place'', given the strong economy but low inflation.

He said there was a ''possibility'' - at 40% odds - that the Reserve Bank would cut the OCR this year.

''We are calling the end of the Reserve Bank's [OCR] hiking cycle. We expect that the next move in the OCR will be down,'' Mr Stephens said.

He expected the New Zealand economy would remain ''solid'' for the next two years, and was forecasting gross domestic product (GDP) of about 3% for both 2015 and 2016.

However, he said the Canterbury rebuild was ''well advanced'' and ''the peak of the rebuild is clearly in sight''. EQC's home repair programme is more than 95% complete.

''We expect total construction activity, which includes commercial and infrastructure projects, will peak in early 2016 and then start easing back from 2017,'' he said.

He noted the outlook for inflation in coming years looked to be so well contained that he saw no need for further OCR hikes within the present economic cycle.

Not only was housing and construction strong, in Auckland and Canterbury, but household spending had been ''charging ahead'' in recent months.

''We now expect that spending growth over 2015 and 2016 will be the strongest we've seen in close to a decade,'' Mr Stephens said.

The ASB last week said moved the odds of an OCR cut from around 50:50 to 60%, dependant on inflation and wage-related data.

ASB senior economist Jane Turner said yesterday she expected a total 50 basis point cut during the year, in September and October, of 25 points each.

''Market pricing implies at lease one cut by the end of the year and the risk of another,'' she said.

simon.hartley@odt.co.nz

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