ODT Online rugby writer Jeff Cheshire ranks the Rugby World Cup teams on their chances to win the tournament.
1. New Zealand
Obviously favourites despite receiving a scare a few weeks ago. It is hard to pin-point a glaring weakness in their game and assuming they remain tactically adept, have the players to win the whole thing. Of course that does not mean they will, but having lost only three games since 2011, nothing short of a successful title defence will satisfy.
2. Ireland
Seemed to be lurking as the dark horse for a long time, but are now a full blown threat for all to see. Never have they posed such a threat at a World Cup with a hard-working tight five, a dynamic looseforward trio and a backline which can create as well as play the kick and chase game. They have beaten everyone except the All Blacks over the past couple of years, and they went pretty close to toppling them too. There last couple of results haven't been as convincing, but they still have to be rated right up there.
3. South Africa
Recent results would suggest the Springboks might be too high here. When it comes to winning World Cup's though, you can never underestimate them. During the Rugby Championship, they were desperately unlucky against Australia, outplayed New Zealand for 60 minutes and bounced back well from their loss to Argentina. Their pack will be brutal, but they now have a backline which is dangerous and a first five who can play a running game. How much disruption the current racial debate causes in the set up could be a variable hard to predict.
4. England
Playing at home helps, but this English team is capable of beating anyone regardless. Their defensive line will try to suffocate opposition attacks, while their attack will revolve around creating pressure and exposing gaps - which they are capable of doing now. It is the type of rugby that goes well in close World Cup games. Their recent loss to France was not encouraging, but just as is the case with the All Blacks, it is dangerous to put everything down to one loss away from home.
5. Australia
Were impressive in beating New Zealand and equally so in their comeback against South Africa. But they do not pose anywhere near the same threat away from home, only having won away three times since the start of last year, twice against Wales and once against Argentina. On their day they can beat anyone regardless of prior form and they are capable of winning the whole thing. But they have to fire everywhere. Their improved tight game, speed in the loose and attacking threats out wide make them a team who can strike in different areas.
6. Wales
Claimed an impressive scalp in knocking off Ireland in the weekend, beating them for the second time this year, and are a genuine threat with their top team on the park. Their forwards are a pack of workers, while there are a variety of attacking threats, along with a couple of hard runners who provide go-forward. First five will be a key position for them, while there are also a handful of players they would not want to lose to injury. Probably a long shot to win it, but still a shot nonetheless, if they can get past England and Australia in their pool, that is.
7. France
Everyone knows the threat France poses and, like Australia, they are a team in which recent form is not always the most important thing. That recent form has been mixed to say the least, but there is no doubt they are a tougher opponent at home than away. They split their games against England over the past two weeks and beat only Scotland and Italy in the Six Nations. Yet they beat Australia at the end of last year and pushed the All Blacks close in late-2013. Their strength lies up front and will use the rolling maul to great effect, although with players like Wesley Fofana in the backline, they can still cut you to pieces given space.
8. Argentina
There is definitely a drop from seventh to eighth, but Argentina are still a team that could bother sides. A team built around their strong set-piece, they will look to attack in tight against tougher defences, as the All Blacks found out earlier in the year. That is not to say they do not have the ability to attack out wide though, possessing a handful of live-wire backs and are a team who can randomly be lethal. Whether they can do that in a pressure-situation remains to be seen, although their recent win over the Springboks in Durban will do wonders for their confidence.
9. Fiji
Some teams it is hard to get a gauge on due to the teams they have been playing. It is hard to knock what Fiji have been doing though. After sticking within four points of Wales and beating Italy last year, they have lost just one game in 2015, a one-point thriller against the New Zealand Maori. Of course their wins have hardly come against powerhouses, although wins are wins and Samoa showed themselves a tough opponent against the All Blacks. Fiji will have a tough time even making an imprint on this tournament, finding themselves in the same pool as England, Wales and Australia, although they will not be an easy-beat and their raw physicality could be unsettling.
10. Scotland
Their record in recent times is abysmal, although unlike most of the others this far down the rankings, they have been playing against quality opposition. Four years on from their worst ever World Cup showing, Scotland hardly look in better shape. After an abysmal Six Nations where they lost every game, they snapped a six game losing streak against Italy and then a stronger line-up thrashed the Italians at home in the return match. They have pushed most teams however and will make you work for a win. In tight they are strong and will compete, although they can struggle when the game speeds up and the opposition attacks with width.
11. Samoa
Like Fiji, Samoa have not had the luxury of playing the world's top nations on a regular basis. However, they put on an inspired performance, admittedly in what could be labelled the game of their lives, to push an out of sorts All Blacks team. Along with that they have a draw with Fiji to their name, as well as wins over a handful of minnows. Perhaps hard to judge based on this evidence, but they are a physical team with plenty of firepower who are capable of playing a game many of the top teams will not like.
12. Tonga
Another who has a good record against minnow teams, although does not have a genuinely big scalp to its name. Tonga went down to Fiji in the Pacific Nations Cup, but rebounded with wins over Canada, USA and Japan. They should beat anyone below them on these rankings, although would have a close battle with Italy, though they would battle to topple anyone above them. There are plenty of players amongst their squad that will be familiar to New Zealand fans and a bunch who have spent time in Dunedin too. Expect them to be physical, as always, while also possessing the players to play with flair.
13. Italy
Their world ranking of 15 is a bit low and comes as a result of losing a lot of games to good teams. Realistically they fit in somewhere around No 12 or 13. That said, Italy are not in flash form. They have won just three games in the past 24 months, two at home against Fiji and Samoa, while also beating Scotland at Murrayfield in the Six Nations. The rest does not make for great reading, with Japan, Fiji, Samoa and all of the Six Nations and Rugby Championship teams having beaten the Italians. Most recently they were given a hiding by 48-7 hiding by Scotland. Yet in 2013 they pulled out wins over Ireland and France, so perhaps they are not a complete lost cause. That said, if they were playing the likes of Japan and Georgia on a regular basis, their pack strength would surely be too much.
14. Georgia
Had a good start to the year, beating all of the second-tier European teams to win a fifth consecutive European Nations Cup. Since then they have beaten Uruguay, but have gone down to Emerging Ireland and Newcastle Falcons, which is an indicator of where they are really at. Their international results over the past two years have come with wins over Japan and Samoa, although their one match against a top opposition, Ireland, saw them well-beaten. Expect them to be confrontational up front and come with a strong set-piece.
15. USA
Beat Canada twice in August, both times in Canada and the second being a resounding 41-23 scoreline. They also beat Japan during the Pacific Nations Cup and proved a tough challenge for Fiji, Samoa and Tonga, while having a narrow loss to Harlequins at the weekend. Like the other minnows, they will fight hard and have come a long way, but as was shown in their match against the All Blacks last year, they will struggle to stay organised when the game speeds up.
16. Japan
Wins against Korea and Hong Kong don't really count, but they have beaten World Cup teams in Uruguay and Canada this year. Had an exceptional 12 months starting from November 2013, where they on an 11 test winning streak, claiming the scalps of Italy, Fiji, Samoa, Tonga, Romania, USA and Canada. That is not a bad record, for a minnow team at least. Their forward pack has come a long way, while they have a few handy backs who will battle and can make use of space.
17. Romania
A long way from where they once were, but Romania remain one of the better of the second-tier European nations. Most notably they achieved wins over Canada and Tonga in 2013, while beating Canada again in 2014. Other scalps include Namibia and Uruguay, although they have also had losses to USA, Japan and Georgia within the past 12 months. Don't expect anything too big, but it could be a good game between them and Canada.
18. Canada
Have not had a great time of it over the past 24 months, having beaten just Namibia and Portugal. They have pushed a bunch of others close, including the Pacific Nations Cup teams, Romania, Georgia and most notably Scotland. Yet their inability to win against teams of this level makes it hard to rank them any higher. That they are sticking close with these teams though at least suggests that they are not too far off and are capable of rising up the rankings. It seems a long way off from their proud history in which has always seem them among the strongest of the minnows, qualifying for the quarterfinals in 1991 and posting respectable scorelines against the top teams at the subsequent two tournaments.
19. Uruguay
Seriously have to be the most unlucky team in the tournament. Uruguay have qualified for the World Cup for the first time since 2003 and were drawn into a pool with Australia, England, Wales and Fiji. What a way to be welcomed back. They recently beat an Argentina XV, but they lack a genuine test victory against a World Cup level team. Perhaps their best result was a draw against USA in March last year, while keeping within nine points of Georgia and 22 of Japan were probably the next best achievements.
20. Namibia
Have warmed up for the World Cup with wins over Russia, Kenya, Tunisia and Zimbabwe, but were beaten by Spain and well-beaten by Romania. Last beat a World Cup team in 2010, when they beat Georgia 21-16, although came within four points of Canada at the end of last year. Their captain Jacques Burger is a classy player, but one man cannot turn a team like this around. Namibia have never won a World Cup match - a 32-17 loss to Ireland in 2007 being their closest - and you would be a brave person to bet against that continuing this time around.
