Time for Plan B as business confidence slips: Bagrie

Cameron Bagrie
Cameron Bagrie
Business confidence has slipped to a six year low and worse is to come.

The ANZ Business Outlook continued the recent trend, with business confidence slipping further into the red last month.

ANZ chief economist Cameron Bagrie said other survey indicators held up better but still flagged an economy that was slowing, although it was far from holding up the white flag in growth stakes.

However, last month's sombre read on business confidence had been succeeded by more solemn results.

A net 15% of businesses were pessimistic about the general economy - a six month low.

General business sentiment was negative across all the five sub sectors. Agriculture was the most pessimistic, services the least.

Such readings in themselves did not mean the economy was becalmed, Mr Bagrie said.

''Political vagaries, the weather, those winter blues and the general feel good - or not - factor can throw headline numbers around. It is what businesses are doing and feeling about their own business that matters most.''

Firms' own activity expectations hit 19 points in July, down five points on June. It was positive but below the long term average of 27, he said. Construction was the most negative sector.

Profit expectations held their ground at nine points. It was nice to see some stability but profit expectations still fell 11 points in June.

Employment intentions continued to fade, down from 15 points to nine.

Investment intentions barely budged, dropping from 12 to 11. Export intentions bucked the trend and lifted from 14 to 19. The New Zealand dollar might be falling for a bad reason but it would stimulate export businesses, Mr Bagrie said.

Residential investment intentions were non existent and commercial construction intentions slipped into the red.

''The mover and shaker this month was the construction sector, which showed the largest monthly fall in own activity, expected profits and employment and investment intentions.

''Construction sentiment is a timely barometer of rising and falling momentum. The short shift in the space of three months is worrying.''

At this stage, it would be wise to consider a Plan B, Mr Bagrie said.

Dairy prices had yet to reach bottom and it could still get uglier. Rebuild stimulus was fading.

''With key economic engines sputtering, the economy risks taking on glider characteristics.''

Most worrying were signals out of China and movements in commodity prices in general, which also affected Australia. Suddenly, the skids were being put under New Zealand's two largest trading partners.

It was time to run some ideas up the flagpole at the Treasury, he said.

New Zealand had the luxury of being in fiscal surplus with low levels of net public debt.

Monetary policy needed mates to lean against during upswings and support the economy during slowdowns.

While monetary policy could move quickly, and the New Zealand dollar even more so, fiscal policy took time to put into motion, Mr Bagrie said.

''Thinking caps need to be put on now. A fast tracking of infrastructure projects is an obvious lever to think about pulling. It's an attractive lever too when we eye the level of interest rates, although challenges may be finding the resources and manpower.''

 

 

Add a Comment